Associate Director Forecasting & Modeling

Job description

Job Description Associate Director, Purchase-Based Forecasting & Modeling This role is part of the U.S. Market Access Contracting Team within Integrated Account Management (IAM) and reports to the Director, Modeling & Forecasting. The Associate Director will lead Purchase-Based Forecasting and Modeling, including quarterly bottom-up Gross-to-Net (GTN) forecasting across 340B, VA/DoD, Hospital& Specialty GPOs, and other evolving sites of care and purchase-based segments The role partners directly with Customer Managers each forecast cycle, combining customer insights, contracting assumptions, market dynamics, and performance trends. It also serves as the financial modeling subject-matter expert, supporting deal evaluation for in-line and launch brands. The role works across Account Management, Strategy, Revenue Forecasting, GMAX, Finance, Analytics, and external partners to ensure contracting strategies are reflected in forecasts and deal models. It also drives operational excellence through AI, standardization, automation, and continuous improvement. Primary Responsibilities: Purchase-Based Forecasting Lead bottom-up, customer-based purchase forecasting with consistent methods, assumptions, and processes across key classes of trade and contracted products. Lead the quarterly GTN forecast process with Customer Managers, combining customer insights, contracting assumptions, market dynamics, and performance trends. Partner with Strategy, Finance, Revenue Forecasting, GMAX, and other stakeholders to align GTN, volume, revenue, and market access assumptions and surface key drivers, risks, and opportunities. Develop and maintain statistical forecasts in R1 (Cloud TM1) that reflect customer dynamics, contracting assumptions, and market trends. Monitor actual versus forecast performance, identify variances, risks, and trends, and apply learnings to future cycles. Purchase-Based Deal Modeling Lead purchase-based deal modeling with consistent methods, assumptions, and processes across key classes of trade for contracted products. Advise Customer Managers as the financial modeling subject-matter expert for VA/DoD, GPO, 340B, LOP, and other site-of-care contracting opportunities for in-line and launch brands. Enhance launch brand modeling so VA/DoD, GPO, 340B, LOP, and other purchase-based contracting opportunities are evaluated consistently. Incorporate competitive dynamics and competitor contracting assumptions into deal models and forecasts. Partner with MAPS and payer teams on post-deal analytics, comparing actual contract performance with pre-deal expectations and applying learnings to future modeling, forecasting, and contracting decisions. Operational Excellence Drive operational excellence through AI, standardization, simplification, and automation to improve the accuracy, transparency, scalability, and efficiency of forecasting and modeling processes. Partner with AI specialists and external partners to automate manual processes and streamline workflows for a growing launch portfolio. Standardize data inputs, methodologies, processes, and controls across forecasting and deal modeling to improve consistency and reduce risk. Oversee contractor-led operations to ensure pricing, expense, revenue, and other modeling inputs are accurate and consistently applied. Coordinate with external partners to maintain accountability and effective execution across forecasting and deal modeling. Qualifications & Experience Education Requirement: BA/BS degree or equivalent Experience & Skills Business Acumen & Domain Expertise: Understands commercial and market access strategy; translates business needs into KPI-tied analytical requirements. Knowledge of pharma, oncology, rare disease, or U.S. payer/market access Strategic Partnering: Consultative business partner experience Experience: Data-driven insights in market access, payer or commercial analytics, finance, data science, or pharma/biotech/consulting. Analytical & Technical: Skilled in forecast models, scenario analysis, and business cases; strong quantitative skills. Collaboration: Proven cross-functional success (Market Access, Finance, Data Science, Analytics, Account Management) Leadership & Independence: Proactive, thrives in ambiguity, creates structure, drives execution. Communication: Delivers clear, actionable, data-driven insights; strong stakeholder management. Required Skills: Accountability, Account Management, Analytics Insights, Automation, Bidding Process, Brand Launches, Commercial Contract Management, Contracting Strategies, Contract Management, Contract Performance, Cross-Functional Leadership, Customer-Focused, Demand Forecasting, Disease Awareness, Financial Analysis, Financial Forecasting, Forecasting Models, Launch Excellence, Launch Management, Market Access, Market Research, Relationship Management, Scenario Analysis, Stakeholder Management, Strategic Thinking Preferred Skills: Current Employees apply HERE Current Contingent Workers apply HERE US and Puerto Rico Residents Only: Our company is committed to inclusion, ensuring that candidates can engage in a hiring process that exhibits their true capabilities. Please click here if you need an accommodation during the application or hiring process. As an Equal Employment Opportunity Employer, we provide equal opportunities to all employees and applicants for employment and prohibit discrimination on the basis of race, color, age, religion, sex, sexual orientation, gender identity, national origin, protected veteran status, disability status, or other applicable legally protected characteristics.  As a federal contractor, we comply with all affirmative action requirements for protected veterans and individuals with disabilities.  For more information about personal rights under the U.S. Equal Opportunity Employment laws, visit: EEOC Know Your Rights EEOC GINA Supplement​ We are proud to be a company that embraces the value of bringing together, talented, and committed people with diverse experiences, perspectives, skills and backgrounds. The fastest way to breakthrough innovation is when people with diverse ideas, broad experiences, backgrounds, and skills come together in an inclusive environment. We encourage our colleagues to respectfully challenge one another’s thinking and approach problems collectively. Learn more about your rights, including under California, Colorado and other US State Acts The primary location for this posting is: USA - Pennsylvania - North Wales (Upper Gwynedd) Where required by law, the compensation range for this role is provided below. The salary range for the primary location of this role is: $142,400.00 - $224,100.00 This range reflects the Company's reasonable expectation of the base salary applicable to this role at the time of posting. An employee’s position within the salary range will be based on several factors including, but not limited to relevant education, qualifications, certifications, experience, skills, geographic location, government requirements, and business or organizational needs. The successful candidate will be eligible for annual bonus and long-term incentive, if applicable. We offer a comprehensive package of benefits. Available benefits include medical, dental, vision healthcare and other insurance benefits (for employee and family), retirement benefits, including 401(k), paid holidays, vacation, and compassionate and sick days. More information about benefits is available at https://jobs.merck.com/us/en/compensation-and-benefits. Additional location(s): Please note the salary range above applies to the Primary Location of the position. Where a role has other listed locations, different compensation guidelines may apply. You may find the salary ranges for additional locations below. If the salary range is not listed for the location you are applying to, our Talent Acquisition team will provide further information to you relevant to your location. Ad