Associate Director, Strategic Forecasting Respiratory & Rare Disease

Job description

Job Description Associate Director – Strategic Forecasting Respiratory & Rare Disease Associate Director – Strategic Forecasting Respiratory & Rare Disease is a senior leadership role responsible for delivering forward-looking, data-driven insights that shape key business decisions across the pharmaceutical asset lifecycle. This role serves as a trusted advisor to senior stakeholders, integrating deep therapeutic area expertise, advanced analytics, and AI-enabled methodologies to inform portfolio strategy, investment decisions, and market planning across inline and pipeline assets. Primary responsibilities include, but are not limited to: 1. Strategic Leadership and Vision Define and drive the future state of forecasting, including methodologies, tools, and integration of advanced analytics and AI Evolve forecasting from a reporting function to a strategic advisory capability, focused on decision impact Lead cross-functional initiatives that enhance forecasting capabilities and business outcomes 2. Forecasting and Strategic Insight Generation Lead development and delivery of strategic forecasts and insights across multiple complex assets or therapy areas Deliver: Scenario planning and simulation (what-if analysis, sensitivities, risk/opportunity assessment) Portfolio-level insights spanning inline products, pipeline assets, and business development opportunities Robust assumption frameworks, incorporating internal and external data sources (epidemiology, competitive intelligence, market dynamics) Inform: Launch and commercialization strategy Lifecycle management Long-range and portfolio planning 3. Therapeutic Area and Pharmaceutical Expertise Develop and apply deep therapeutic area expertise (e.g., oncology, vaccines, specialty pharma or other disease areas) to inform forecasting assumptions and insights Incorporate understanding of: Disease epidemiology and patient flow Treatment paradigms and evolving standards of care Competitive landscape and pipeline dynamics Pricing, access, and reimbursement considerations Translate scientific and clinical developments into quantitative forecast implications and strategic recommendations Partner with stakeholders to interpret complex clinical, regulatory, and market signals across asset lifecycles 4. Advanced Analytics and AI Integration Embed advanced analytics and AI/ML techniques into forecasting workflows to enhance accuracy, robustness, and insight generation Champion the use of: Simulation-based forecasting (probabilistic models, scenario engines) Driver-based and dynamic forecasting models Data-driven approaches to reduce bias and improve decision quality Partner with analytics, data science, and digital teams to scale innovative forecasting approaches 5. Stakeholder Engagement and Influence Act as a trusted partner to senior stakeholders across Marketing, Finance, R&D, Market Access, and Regional teams Lead alignment on: Key assumptions, uncertainties, and forecast drivers Strategic implications of forecast outputs Provide an independent, objective perspective, constructively challenging inputs and guiding decision-making Navigate complex stakeholder environments to drive data-informed consensus 6. Capability Building and Transformation Drive standardization and continuous improvement of forecasting methodologies and frameworks Lead efforts to: Simplify processes Increase automation and scalability 7. Team Leadership and Talent Development Lead and develop a high-performing team delivering forecasting and analytics solutions Build capability in: Strategic thinking Advanced analytics and modeling Stakeholder engagement Provide coaching, feedback, and structured development opportunities Foster a culture of collaboration, innovation, and accountability Qualification and Skills: Experience & Educational Background : Advanced degree in Engineering, Life Sciences, Business, or related field (MBA/PhD preferred) 8+ years of relevant experience, including experience in pharmaceutical forecasting, analytics, or consulting 4+ years of People management experience Demonstrated experience in strategic forecasting across the asset lifecycle (inline, pipeline, and/or business development) Pharmaceutical & Domain Expertise: Strong understanding of: Disease area dynamics and therapeutic landscapes Epidemiology and patient-based forecasting approaches Clinical development, regulatory milestones, and commercialization pathways Pricing, access, and payer dynamics across key markets Ability to translate clinical, scientific, and market developments into quantitative forecast implications Analytical & Technical Capabilities : Deep expertise in: Advanced forecasting methodologies (e.g., driver-based models, scenario planning, sensitivity analysis) Simulation techniques (e.g., Monte Carlo, probabilistic forecasting) Experience leveraging: Advanced analytics and statistical techniques AI/ML applications in forecasting and decision support (preferred) Strong ability to manage uncertainty, triangulate multiple data sources, and build robust assumptions Leadership & Stakeholder Management Proven ability to lead cross-functional engagements and influence senior stakeholders across diverse functions Experience working in global, highly matrixed environments, navigating complexity and ambiguity Demonstrated ability to challenge assumptions constructively and provide an independent, objective perspective Strategic Thinking & Problem Solving Strong analytical and problem-solving skills with the ability to: Structure ambiguous business problems Synthesize complex data into clear, actionable insights Connect analytics to strategic business decisions Ability to operate effectively in fast-paced, evolving environments Communication & Storytelling Excellent communication skills with the ability to: Translate complex analyses into clear, compelling narratives for senior leadership Influence decision-making across multiple levels of the organization Required Skills: Business Analysis, Business Decisions, Business Development, Epidemiology, Financial Decision Making, Forecasting Models, Human Diseases, Marketing, Numerical Analysis, Problem Solving, Scenario Planning, Stakeholder Engagement, Stakeholder Relationship Management, Strategic Forecasting, Strategic Leadership, Strategic Planning, Waterfall Model Preferred Skills: Current Employees apply HERE Current Contingent Workers apply HERE Search Firm Representatives Please Read Carefully Merck & Co., Inc., Rahway, NJ, USA, also known as Merck Sharp & Dohme LLC, Rahway, NJ, USA, does not accept unsolicited assistance from search firms for employment opportunities. All CVs / resumes submitted by search firms to any employee at our company without a valid written search agreement in place for this position will be deemed the sole property of our company. No fee will be paid in the event a candidate is hired by our company as a result of an agency referral where no pre-existing agreement is in place. Where agency agreements are in place, introductions are position specific. Please, no phone calls or emails. Employee Status: Regular Relocation: Domestic VISA Sponsorship: No Travel Requirements: 10% Flexible Work Arrangements: Hybrid Shift: Not Indicated Valid Driving License: No Hazardous Material(s): NA Job Posting End Date: 07/31/2026*A job posting is effective until 11:59:59PM on the day BEFORE the listed job posting end date. Please ensure you apply to a job posting no later than the day BEFORE the job posting end date.